Vaca Muerta Picks Up Speed

Fresh capital lifts Argentina’s shale hopes, though frailties remain

1 Dec 2025

A decade of hope around Argentina’s Vaca Muerta is giving way to something firmer. A new burst of capital has made the shale patch one of the fastest growing in the world. The latest show of faith comes from Vista Energy, which plans to invest $4.5bn over three years, evidence that confidence, at last, is rising.

Vista aims to lift output from roughly 126,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day to 180,000 by 2028. Hitting that target would edge Argentina up the global supply ladder and prove that the basin can convert promise into production. Miguel Galuccio, Vista’s boss, says Vaca Muerta is entering a new phase, and that firms "willing to move with discipline now will shape what comes next".

Several forces are helping. Drilling costs are falling. Rules are clearer. Buyers want reliable supply from more diverse sources. Analysts note that if infrastructure expands and financing remains open, the basin could one day stand beside the larger shale hubs. YPF’s own push adds weight to that view.

Yet obstacles persist. Export pipelines are tight. Specialist crews and kit do not always appear on time. Economic strains unsettle operators planning years ahead. Environmental worries over water use and land effects add friction. Politics can shift, and any change to export rules would echo across project plans.

The loftiest hopes for exports rest on four supports: more infrastructure, steady credit, firm demand abroad and predictable regulation. Weakness in any one of them could slow the climb.

For now, momentum is building. Capital is flowing. Operations are becoming more efficient. Institutions sound more supportive. If this mix holds, Vaca Muerta could become a defining force in South America’s energy story, offering jobs, exports and a measure of confidence to a region eager for durable growth.